Saturday, February 13, 2021

Inferences of small samples - Brief points (Applied Econometrics)

 □ Methods for the small sample inference

Monte Carlo methods and Bootstrap method.

▪ Monte Carlo Method

This method helps in the choice between different estimators and test statistics.

▪ Bootstrap Method

This method helps in making small sample inference on the chosen estimator and test statistic.

There are 2 bootstrap data generation methods: the residual based method and thr direct method of bootstrapping the data.

 There are different methods for constructing confidence intervals - the percentile method and the percentile t method and its also that the latter method is the preferred choice.

■ Is the defective Bootstrap method still better than asymptotic inference ? 

Actually, there are many instances where defective bootstrap methods have been used. There are several examples in several literatures where the defective Bootstrap method still is not better than asymptotic inference. 

One of the examples, is in the unit root. However, when no asymptotic inference is available, its better to use bootstrap method. Also, when a correct bootstrap method is complicated, and not feasable, a theoritically imperfect bootstrap method might still improve asymptotic inference.

Thus, unless proven else, some bootstrap may be are better than no bootstrap.


Thank you

Note: Details will be discussed in upcoming blogs.

Aditya Pokhrel

MBA, MA Economics, MPA 

Friday, February 12, 2021

Highlights of Macroeconomic Indicators (Till Mid Jan 2021) (Financial Economics)

 □ Highlights

- Inflation stood at 3.6 %

- Imports decreased by 4.8 % and exports increased by 6.1% 

- Remittances increased by 11.1% in NPR and increased by 6.7 % in USD.

- BOP remained at surplus at Rs. 124.92 billion

- Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves = $ 12.78 billion

- Federal government spending = Rs. 415.75 billion

- Federal government revenue = Rs. 422.24 billion

- Braod Money (M2) expanded to 9.6 %

- Deposits on BFI's increased to 9.2 % and claims on private sector increased at 11 %.


Thank you

AdityaPokhrel

MBA, MA Economics, MPA 

Thursday, February 11, 2021

Co integration and VAR important points (Applied Econometrics)

 □ VAR summary

- Unrestricted VAR models suffer from the problem of overparametrization. The Bayesian version (BVAR) has found to give better results and has a good forecasting record.

- Generally, there have been many tests suggested fr unit roots. In most of these tests, the null hypothesis is that there is a unit root, and it is rejected only when is a strong evidence against it.

Using these tests, most economic time series have been found to have unit roots. However, some tests have been devised that use stationary as the null and unit root as the alternative hyotheses. The evidence of unit roots in econimic time series appears to be fragile.

- The theory of co integration tries to study the interrelationships between the long run movements in econnomic time series. Most economic theories about the long run behavior, and thus much important information relevant for testing these theories is lost if the time series is de-trended or differenced, as in the Box-Jenkins approach, before any analysis is done.

- Co integration implies the existence of an error correction model (ECM). It also implies some restrictions on the VAR model.

- Tests for the co integration specify the null hypothesis as no co integration.  This is because the unit root tests have the null hypothesis of unit root. 

- Co integration theory has been used to get tge rational expectations hypothesis (REH) and the market efficiency hypothesis  (MEH). The former rests on rejecting the hypothesis of no co integration and the latter on acceptance of this hypothesis. The results of these tests are sensitive to whether we consider bivariate or multi variate relationships. For ex, x and y may nkt be co integrated, but x, y and z may be co integrated.


Thank You

Aditya Pokhrel 

MBA, MA Economics, MPA 

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS - Main points (Applied Econometrics)

 □ Time Series Summary

- Time Series can be classified to stationary and non stationary. Stationary means the co variance are stationary.

- Some models that are of common use to model stationary series are the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. The conditions are given for the stability of AR models and the invertibility condition, we can write it as infinite autoregression.

- AR models can be estimated by the OLS, but the estimation of MA models is somewhat complex. In practice, however, the MA part does not involve too many parameters. A grid search procedure is described for the estimation of MA models.

- Then after the estimation of the ARMA model, one has to apply tests for the serial correlation to check that the errors are white noise. Tests for this are described. Also, different ARMA models can be compared using the AIC and BIC criteria. For comparing different AR models, Akaike's FPE criterion can also be used.

- Now, another goodness of fit measure R ^ 2. However, time series data usually have strong trends and seasonals, and the R ^ 2's that we get are often high. It is difficult to judge the usefulness of a model by just looking at the high R ^ 2. Some alternative measures have been discussed, and those should be used.


To be contd...

Aditya Pokhrel

MBA, MA Economics, MPA 

Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Dummy variable - Main points Part I (Applied Econometrics)

 □ Dummy Variable

- Dummy Explanatory variables can be used in tests for the coefficient stability in the linear regression models, for obtaining predictions in the linear regression models, and for imposing cross equation constraints.

- One should exercise caution in using the dummy variables when there is heteroscedasticity or autocorrelation. In th presence of the autocorrelated errors, tge dummy variables for testing stability have to be defined suitably.

- Regarding the dummy dependent variables, there are three different models that one can use: the linear probability model, the logit model, and the probit model. The linear discriminant function are just proportional to those of the linear probability model. The coefficients of the discriminant function are just proportional to those of the linear probability model.

- For comparing the liner probability, logit and probit models, one can look at the number of cases correctly predicted. However, this is not enough. It is better to look at some measures of R ^ 2. The remedial measures of R ^ 2: squared correation between y and yhat, Effron's R ^ 2, Cragg and Uhler's R^2, and Mc Fadden R ^ 2. 

For the practical purposes, the first two are descriptive enough. The computation if different R ^ 2 can be illustrated.


To be contd...


Aditya Pokhrel

MBA, MA Economics, MPA 


Monday, February 8, 2021

Profit Theory of Investment (International Economics

 □ Profit Theory

The undisturbed funds are as the source of the internal funds of financing investment.

The investment depends upon the profit and the profits depend on the income.

When the capital market is imperfect the Retained Earnings are of great importance to use them by small and large firms.

We know that the Retained Earnings is directly proportional to profits and the cost of capital is low and optimal caoital stock is large.

The comapny invests profits instead of providing it to the shareholders. This is the liquidity theory of profit.

The another version of the optimal capital stock is a function of the expected profits. If the aggregate profits in the economy and the business profits are rising.

They may lead to expectations of their continues to increase in the future. Thus expected profits are same function of actual profits in the past.

Say, K * = F (pi t - 1)

        where, K * = Optimum capital Stock

        F (pi t - 1) = some function of past actual profits.

Thus this is how profit theory of investment is defined.


Thank You

Aditya Pokhrel

MBA, MA Economics, MPA 


Sunday, February 7, 2021

Cash Management of Banks(Economics of Banking)

■ The Cash Management by banks

Also referred to as the Treasury management generally is a marketing term for the certain kind of servic related to the cash flows offerred primarily to the larger business customers.

It's specifically related to the specific activities such as cash concentration, zero balance accounting and automated clearing house facilties.

Below are the descriptions of the services offered by the banks.

a) A/C reconciliation

For prevention of the fraudulent cash activities (to check cheques on daily basis of clearance and issue of the cheques).

b) Advanced Web Services

They are log on credentials, allowing the employees to send wires and access other cash management features from the web site.

c) Armoured Car Services

There're large retailers who collect huge ash may have the bank pick up via armoured car instead of asking the company's employee to deposit the cash.

d) Automated Clearing House

Electronic systems used to t/f funds between the banks.

e) Balance Reporting

Generally, corporte clients who manage their cash usually subscribe to secure web based reporting of their A/C and transction at their lead bank. These compilations of banking may include balances in foreign currencies as well as those at the other banks.

f) Cash Concentration Services

Say, the large retailers are often in the area where their primary bank doesn't have branches. Thus, for this, they open the bnk A/C at various local level banks in that area.

To prevent the funds in those A/C fom being idle and not earning sufficient interest, many of these banks enter into the agreement with the pimary bank, whereby the primary banks uses the automated clearing houses known as Cash management services.

g) Controlled Disbursements

These are the daily reports that states the anount of disbursements that'll be charged to customer's A/C. The early knowledge of the funds requirements allows customers to invest any surplus in intraday investment opportunities typically money market investments

h) Lockbox/Wholesale services

It's often companies which relative a large number via cheques in the ma have the bank setup a post office box and deposit any cheques found.

i) Lockbox/ Reatail Services

These are for companies with small number of payments, sometimes with detailed requirement of processing.

j) Positive Pay

The comapny here electronically shares its cheques register of all writers cheques with bank and the bank thus will only pay cheques listed in that register, with exactly the same specifications are listed in the register.

k) Reverse positive pay

Similarl to the positive pay, but the process is reversed, with compay, not the bank, maintaining the list of cheques issued.

l) Sweep A/C

Under this system, excess funds from a company's bank A/C are automatically moved into a money market mutual fund overnight, and then moved back into the next morning.

m) Wire Transfer

This is carried out by simple A/C transfer or by the t/f of cash at cash office. Bank wire transfers are often the most expedient method for transferof fund between the banks.

n) Zero balance A/C

Say, companies with large numbers of stores ot locations can very often be confused if all those stores are depositing into a single bank A/C.

To see in traditional sense, it would be impossible to know which deposits were from which stores. To help to correct the problem, banks developed a system where ash store is given their own bank A/C; but all money deposited into the individual store A/C are automatically moved or swept into company's main A/C. This allows the company to look at individual statements for each store.


Thank you 

Notes: Suggestions are open and are lauded.


Aditya Pokhrel 

MBA, MA Economics, MPA 



Saturday, February 6, 2021

Tobin superior to Keynes? Why ? (Monetary Economics)

 ■ What Tobin stated ? 

Tobin's main concept laid down to the Portfolio Optimization approach. He focused to design a portfolio on money speculations and bond adding them together. Money has no risk so there's no return but bond has risk and there's return as well. 

People choose less risk and more return.

The expression for the optimization of the Tobin's portfolio is: 

R = (r/j) × J

where, r = rate of return

              j = rate of risk

              J = Total risk

Now the portfolio is optimized at the two conditions:

a) At given rate of interest

b) At varying rates of interest

Tobin plotted the individual IC's into the rate and return and stated possible combination of money and bond with the associated risks.

Now the analogy comes over here.

♢ Keynes tells

Msp (Money speculated) is inversely related to rate of interest and its graph also slopes (negatively relation) when we plot the interest rate with Money speculated. We know that the curve eventually rests to the liquidity trap position at the lower ate of interest.

♢ Tobin tells

The money speculated (Msp) is indirectly rekated to the rate of risk (j). It is the downward sloping curve having a negative slope when we plot i and Msp.

Here, Msp is also the line of the possible combination of money and bond with the associated risks.

In this, if Msp and i are assumed to be constantly related, it may take the shape of downward sloping straight line.

Thus, now it's completely evident that the Keyenes only focuses on the interest and demand concept of money but Tobin focuses on the risk and return and the Speculative demand.

For this Tobin here stands ahead of Keynes.


Thank you

Aditya Pokhrel 

MBA, MA Economics, MPA 

Friday, February 5, 2021

Why Stock market is surging when the Economy (GDP) is going down ? (Finacial Economics)

■ Stock market and the Economy

Everyone must be acquinted about the NEPSE's rise these days. How it's possible ?

Our economy has been recovering and the stock prices are bullish.

Let's go few months back. World's largest economy the U.S's indexes even rose at that time of the pandemic when the GDP, literally had a negative growth. Why is this so ? 

♢ Reasons and Explanations

Illustrative domain: Many economists and financial analysts cite this example, say, a guy is walking through the woods with his dog attached by a lace. The lace is about 1m longer. 

So, the dog moves here and around but under the radial domain of that lace. It barks at people, pee's at poles or tyres, sniff checks people near to it and all. So here, sometimes the dog might be ahead to the owner and sometimes it remains at the back barking at some cats.

Coming to the pivot, here, the dog's movement is the how stock market is moving and the owner, who is holding the lace is the Economy (GDP) and his movement is unto a non staggering path if we compare to that of dog's one.

♢ Why in reality ? 

When the pandemic hit many countries, the economy was shut down. Many of them were locked and the GDP fell sharply.

But here, people are having the (Ratex) Rational expectations (Neo classical conceptual domain) and are forward looking thought that after pandemic there would be a new day and a new insight in the stock market. So their investment rose.

Another reason is, this is in case of our country Nepal, many people have opned DMAT A/C for dematerializing their paper shares to an electronic form so that the investment/trading could be easier. So this increased number of potent participants in stock market as well. This also made the investors an traders a forward looking perpective holders. 

So the big question to all the investors/traders, is stock market index rise means that the economy is booming ? Not everytime. 

We will discuss in upcoming blogs about why Minsky (Instability Hypothesis) explained stock market as a Capitalistic domain.

We will learn more on blogs on Technical Analysis of Share Trading on upcoming blogs as well.


To be contd...

Thank You


Aditya Pokhrel 

MBA, MA Economics, MPA 


Thursday, February 4, 2021

Nobel Prize 2020 (Economics) -Auction System Improvisation (Current International Economics)

 ■ Nobel Prize - Economics (2020)

Nobel prize in Economics was provided to two professors from the U.S.A, Mr. Wilson and Mr. Milgrom for the detalied analysis and an outlook on the Auction System.

■ Overview of Auction System

Auction System generally (we've seen in many movies as well) is basically the situation where there are many persons for a partucular asset/services 

 raise their voice on the prices of the specific products and the highest one gets the property/services.

□ The Open Auction

The Open Auction is what I explained above.

□ The Sealed Auction

The sealed auction is when the bidders put their prices on a sealed envelope and the other bidders cannot view the bidding pruce of others.

Generally, in this kind of bidding the problem occurs. The bidding done for the

: Minings

: Oil Extraction (Unexploited earlier)

: Telecom system, etc.

are the ones where the bidders bid in an envelope form and here the actual price od the bidding is calculated by the average od the all the bidders prices.

Say, there are 4 bidders for auction for Mining Extraction in Nepal and the actual price of Auction is not known and bidders bid into their intuition.

P1 = Price of 1st bidder (Nepal)

P2 = Price of 2nd bidder (India)

P3 = Price of 3rd bidder (Bangaladesh)

P4 = Price of 4th bidder (China)

Now, the avg price of this bidding is:

P bid = [P1 + P2 + P3 + P4] ÷ 4

Now, Say again if the P1 > P bid, then Nepal overbidded, that is, Nepal fell down into the Winner's Curse.

■ Winner's Curse

As explained and illustrated earlier, Winner's curse is that price which we bidded more of the average bidded price for a certain auction. So, since we (Nepal) set the higer price, we fall into this curse.

Now, my point is, Milgrom and Wilson caught this perspective and studied in detail to find an analytical foundation for the reduction or removal of the Winner's curse.

They stated that the prices that are to be auctioned should be analytically and logically and mathematically calculated and more.

For, this they laid a proper framework (will be discussed in upcoming blogs) and thus they are lauded with the Nobel Prize.


Thank You

Aditya Pokhrel

MBA, MA Economics, MPA 



Wednesday, February 3, 2021

Impact of Union Budget Release 2021(India) on Nepal's Trade (Current International Economics)

 ■ Union Budget of India (2021 A.D)

              Union budget, was released on 3rd of Feb, 2021 and was released through a digital platform.

As we know Nepal and India have been into the ties of trade relationships since years and the Trade Treaty and BIPPA with India have strengthened to the exchange of transactionary stances be it goods, services or any other.

Briefly, as I viewed the Union Budget, I felt to jot some important things.

The Cess (tax charged above the base tax liability of any tax payer) basically in Agriculture and Development Sector was implied this time for many production stuffs.

It is said that the Budget would increase price of Petrol/Diesel by 2.5 % per litre.

On the other products, like agriculture goods, in Apple has Cess about 35 %, Lentils has Cess has Cess of 20 %, Kabuli chana and Peas has Cess of 30 %, Soyabean and Sunflower oil has Cess of 20 %, Cotton also has Cess of 5 % Cess, etc

Similarly, Urea is also charged with a Cess of 5 %. 

When it comes to Inverters (Solar) then it's also charged with the Cess of 5 to 20 %.

To the contrary, the Nylon, Iron, Copper, Platinum and Gold, Silver and Shoes were also getting a reduced Cess.

■ My analysis

As we are aware that we are the largest importer from India. The TEPC (Trade and Export Promotion Centre) data of Nepal reveals that Rice is the major imports and then comea food stuffs followed by Crude Soyabean, M.S Billet, etc.

So if we see the fruits and vegetables slight increase might be there in our local market, nonetheless, the impact of it into the Food and Beverages Inflation is yet to be researched. It's impact on our overall import cost may be lower as it's not the prime import product.

Similarly, the Iron, Copper, Gold and Silver's price may decrease slight a bit in upcoming days if the demand and supply existed the same or if demand increases.

In nutshell, the overall impact will not be big but there will be slight turbulence in respective markets (conclusion based upon current circumstance, not econometrically researched).


Thank you

Note: Suggestions are lauded.

Aditya Pokhrel 

MBA, MA Economics, MPA 

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Mutual Funds - Determining Rate of Return - Part I (Corporate Finance)

 ■ Mutual Funds

There are asset management companies basically to manage public's money. 

The asset management company is a a trsutee and the balance amount is returned with a specific change. They act ibtermediary between the stock market and Investors.

● Determining the rate of return

ONE: When the holding period is 1 year

Rate of return = [ (NAV1 - NAVo) + I1 + G1] \ 

                               NAVo

where, NAV1 = Net Asset Value at the end of the year.

NAVo = NAV in the beginning of the year.

I1 = Distribution on A/C of income/dividends.

G1 = Distribution on the A/C of capital gains.

Growth = NAV1 - NAVo

TWO: When holding period is other than one year

Holding Period Rate (HPR) = [ (NAV1 - NAVo) + I1 + G1] \ NAVo

Annualized Rate of return = HPR × 12 / No of                                                      months as                                                                holding period

OR, 

HPR × 365 / No of days as holding period

■ Different schemes and plans of Mutual Funds

a) Dividend Plan (DP)

Mutual fund plan where the mutual fund companies whatever returns they have generated, it will keep on distributing to its units holders in the form of dividends.

b) Dicidends Re investment Plan (DRIP)

This is not distributed by dividend holders. Those dividends are compulsorily re invested by generating more and more units. Instead of giving cash of unit holders, the mutual hold will be re investing that dividend and give additional units to the unit holders.

c) Bonus Plan (BP)

The mutual funds give additional units by the way of bonus to the investors.

● Difference in Taxation

DRIP = On the additional units, the cost gor unit holder for that additional units would be NAV prevailing on that date of distributing those units.

d) Growth Plan

Likewise, not only DP, DRIP or BP. The units remain the same. The portfolio made by the mutual fund and gain accumulate in that the NAV of each unit increases.

Generally, there are two categories:

a) Open Ended

b) Closed Ended


To be contd ... (Numerical portion to be done later)

Aditya Pokhrel 

MBA, MA Economics, MPA 



Monday, February 1, 2021

Some Important Codes in R Part II (Applied Econometrics)

 ■ Codes in R contd...

a) Multicollinearity in R

Packages are - car, faraway, VIF, fmsb, HH.

Say, 

#install.packages (faraway)

library (faraway)

model1 = lm (depvar~ind vars)

faraway : : vif (model1)

The result obtained should be less than 5.


b) Serial Correlation in R

Box.Test (var, lag = n, type = "Ljung-Box")

Box.Test (var, lag = n, type = "Box-Pierce")

Serial correlation if exist we can make the model into GARCH.


c) Heteroscedasticity in R

#install.packages (lmtest)

model1 = lm (var1~ var2)

bp test (model1) Breush Pagan test


d) Normality Test

Shapiro - Wilk test

Say a hypothetical test

c < - LC $ variable [1:n]

shapiro.test (c)

If the result p value is more than .05 then the data is normally distributed.


e) Ramsey Test

#install.packages (lmtest)

library (lmtest)

model1 = lm (var 1 ~ var 2)

resettest (model1)

Let's see the results, Ho: There's linearity in model.

If the p value is more than .05 then our null hypothesis is accepted then linearity in the model.


To be contd...

Aditya Pokhrel 

MBA, MA Economics, MPA 



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